“[People] he didn’t [die], because they were saved right there. They were at Christmas lunch. They were in the New Year and are probably in stores right now.
“We’ll never know who they were, because they didn’t die.”
This view is not shared by all Australian epidemiologists and disease modelers. They have differing opinions about the value of public health measures when the virus is widespread and will not be eliminated.
The head of the epidemiological modeling unit at Monash University, Associate Professor James Trauer, said: “My view is that if we slow down transmission now, we will reduce the number of deaths that occur daily. it measures these deaths because most of these people will be exposed in the next two years. “
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A recent piece of research by Hellard and his Burnet colleagues, including director Brendan Crabb, predicted that reducing transmission by 10% would save between 198 and 314 lives in Victoria from May to the end of this year. year.
Reducing the spread by 20% could save up to 2,000 lives nationwide, or more than 500 in Victoria, where more than a million infections could also be prevented, the research suggests.
Hellard said the team deliberately avoided saying how the transmission should be reduced. However, improved building designs to improve airflow would help. In the event of a new wave of COVID-19, short-term measures that could be taken include increasing work from home and the use of masks.
But Hellard said it was very important for the community to have support in these efforts.
A 2021 study, of which Trauer was the lead author, estimated that facial covers reduced the spread of COVID-19 during Victoria’s second wave by 40 percent. Trauer said the figure was so high because masks were mandatory in Melbourne away from home in late July 2020.
A study published last month by researchers at the University of Bristol and Oxford University estimated that “population mask use” in public reduced COVID-19 transmission by 19 percent. However, Trauer said it depended on everyone wearing masks. So, for example, if 50 percent of people wore masks, the transmission would be reduced by about 10 percent.
The Victorian government did not say whether it had predicted the impact of indoor mask warrants on deaths and infections as part of the modeling regularly commissioned by its health department.
More than 220 people lost their lives due to COVID-19 in the first weeks of June.
A Victoria Health Department spokesman said the department still “strongly recommended masks in shared indoor environments; if you can’t physically distance yourself; or you’re with the most vulnerable in COVID-19.” The department also encouraged Victorians. to make sure your shots are up to date.Other tips are offered in the government’s “stay well this winter” campaign.
Masks are only available in some places, including public transportation and hospitals, despite growing pressure on overcrowded Victorian hospitals made worse by the flu and COVID-19 presentations.
Deakin University President of Epidemiology Catherine Bennett said that even those who ended up taking COVID-19 could prevent repeated infections by wearing a mask.
Bennett, who has so far dodged COVID, said he found wearing a mask was “a pain” with the glasses, but he still wore them while in public with other people most of the time.
He said a stronger public message would normalize the use of masks.
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“There are still people who, if enough people did it, would do it themselves,” he said.
Professor Allen Cheng, a leading expert on infectious diseases, said that while he would like COVID-19 cases to be reduced, the question was how best to do so while ensuring that society could work.
“We can encourage people to wear masks, we can improve ventilation, but they are kind of incremental changes,” he said. “What we need to substantially reduce the transmission would be a blockage or something, and we’re not ready yet.”
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